Calculating, planning, budgeting — as the 2026 Budget approaches, many are keeping a close eye on their finances. Picture Credit: Business Report
By Aisha Zardad
South Africa – Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the 2026 Budget at 14h00 on Wednesday, 25 February, amid expectations of a stable and largely upbeat fiscal outlook.
South Africans will be able to follow the Budget Speech across multiple platforms, including radio, television and online streaming.
The main online streaming platforms include:
- eNCA
- Parliament of South Africa (Parliament TV)
- South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC)
Unlike 2025 — which saw three separate budget sittings in February, March and May — the 2026 Budget is expected to unfold without disruption.
Last year’s delays stemmed from political tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU), particularly over the proposed VAT hike in the original budget framework.
For 2026, the finance department adjusted its consultation processes. The upcoming Budget is expected to reflect broader engagement within the GNU and greater input from the political parties that form part of the coalition.
Analysts believe South Africa’s fiscal position has improved compared to last year.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has indicated that government debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) will stabilise this year, suggesting the debt ratio may finally peak after nearly two decades of steady increases.
A stabilised debt path would reduce the state’s interest burden and potentially free up funding for education, healthcare and infrastructure — particularly significant as municipal elections approach.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 78% — slightly above the National Treasury’s 77.9% forecast — before falling to 76.9% by 2029.
They anticipate that the minister will outline measures to sustain these gains, possibly through the introduction of a new fiscal rule to be adopted next year.
“The market is expecting a very bullish budget, with substantial revenue overruns translating into higher primary surpluses and a clear decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio,” said Carmen Nel, head of multi-asset at Terebinth Capital.
Economists expect tax collections to exceed Treasury’s November forecast by around R10 billion, while expenditure is projected to undershoot targets in the fiscal year ending March.
This could lower the consolidated budget deficit to 4.4% of GDP — an improvement on the Treasury’s previous 4.7% projection — widening South Africa’s primary surplus, where revenue exceeds non-interest spending.
Andrew Matheny of Goldman Sachs said the improvement reflects deliberate fiscal management rather than purely favourable external conditions.
“The fiscal improvement is mostly Treasury’s doing,” he noted, adding that corporate income-tax receipts have performed slightly better than expected.
South Africa’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, alongside the adoption of a 3% inflation target, may also strengthen the case for ratings upgrades.
Economists expect both Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings to revise the country’s outlook to positive in upcoming assessments.
Key issues to watch: Godongwana is expected to maintain a firm stance on state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with no major bailouts anticipated. However, financial pressures at Transnet and the Road Accident Fund (RAF) remain ongoing risks.
South Africans will also be watching closely for announcements on the National Health Insurance (NHI), potential tax measures or relief, and possible changes to social grants.
Frederick Mitchell, chief economist at Aluma Capital, said that while the macroeconomic narrative appears positive, taxpayers are under mounting pressure.
“For two fiscal years, tax brackets and medical aid credits have remained unadjusted, creating a pernicious stealth tax through bracket creep,” he said.
Mitchell warned that failing to provide relief would place further strain on household consumption, which accounts for around 60% of South Africa’s GDP.
